Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Thoughts about the 2017 Buffalo Bills Season

On Sunday, the Buffalo Bills season came to an end as the Jacksonville Jaguars won in the NFL Wild Card game 10-3.

The first season which Buffalo tasted the playoffs in this millennium, is done at 9-8.

It was a season of highs and lows, with the highest of highs coming 5 minutes after their game against the Miami Dolphins when Cincinnati punched the Bills ticket into the playoff with the 49 yard touchdown toss to beat and eliminate the Baltimore Ravens.

It paired the Buffalo Bills with another team not known for success lately, the Jacksonville Jaguars.  One of these two teams was going to lose that label on a cold day in North Florida.

It wasn't the Bills.

The Bills looked flat throughout the game.  The defense was the reason why the team had a chance, but even the defense was a reason why the Jags had a 10-3 lead.

Because they couldn't stop Blake Bortles on the scramble.  Scramble once for a good gain as a quarterback you don't expect to run, that's on the other team.  But the second scramble that led to the touchdown, and the third to help seal things, that's on the Buffalo defense that never considered Bortles as a running threat.

On the other side of the ball, the Buffalo Bills offense looked lifeless.  Part because of the Jacksonville Jaguars defense that has been nicknamed "Sacksonville" at times during the season.  But a lot of this has to do with Tyrod Taylor.  Taylor is just not a competitive quarterback in the NFL level, and his performance in the wild card game is an example of it.

Tyrod Taylor17/37134 YDS0TD1INT2 Sacks44.2 QB Rating
Those numbers just won't cut it in the NFL.

It's a comment that callers have been making to the Bills flagship station, WGR 550AM, for years.  That the Buffalo Bills need a quality quarterback to help their team grow.

We'll address this comment shortly.  First, we need to draw upon some points from the 2017 season.

1.  The Bills Got Lucky

First, this has to be said.  The Buffalo Bills were lucky to make the playoffs, and they knew it.  The way they made the playoffs was one example of this, but you have to look at the season as a whole for the true showcase.

The AFC was weaker this year.  As a whole, the conference was 25-39 against the NFC.  The New York Jets and the Cleveland Browns were winless, and seven other teams out of the fourteen remaining teams had a 1-3 record.  That means nine out of the sixteen teams in the AFC had a losing record against the other conference, and no team swept their four non-conference matchups. 

That's a big reason why the Bills 9-6 record was good enough to make the playoffs, whereas in the NFC, teams with 8 wins entering the final week of play were already eliminated from postseason contention, as the Falcons needed to reach the 10 win plateau in order to play in January. 

The Bills are also, for once, got a benefit from playing in the AFC East.  The tiebreaker that earned the Bills the playoff spot was strength of schedule.  The AFC East had to play the NFC South this year, a division that saw three teams make the playoffs.  The division, as a whole, was 37-27.  The Baltimore Ravens, the team they were tied with for the final playoff spot after the Los Angeles Chargers were considered out based on their 6-6 conference record, had to play the NFC North.  While having Minnesota on the calendar helped, the division as a whole was slightly weaker, at 34-30.  Having the 0-16 Cleveland Browns twice on the schedule weighed down the Baltimore Ravens.

2. Three losses that should of sunk the Bills

The Buffalo Bills lost seven games this season.  Two of those seven were against the New England Patriots, and we know how they turned out.  New Orleans was a loss against another good team in the Saints.  The Panthers game was a game that the Bills should of won, but couldn't muster the offense to win in the end, as the Panthers were vulnerable in Week 2.

But the Bills suffered three losses during the course of the season that should of wrecked their season.  And they are losses that if the Bills were to miss the playoffs, we would look back and say those were the games that made the difference. 

They are:
Week 5 @ Cincinnati
Week 9 @ New York Jets
Week 11 @ Los Angeles Charges

The team that helped get them into the playoffs was the team the Bills should have beat in Week 5 to establish a 4-1 record as they moved towards the meat of their schedule.  Then, the Thursday Night Football dud the Bills exhibited against the Jets in Week 9, and the less we say about the Nathan Peterman experiment in Week 11 out on the West Coast, the better.

In fact, that loss against the Cincinnati Bengals was the sole reason why Baltimore was able to surpass the Buffalo Bills on the Playoff Picture on Christmas Eve.  The four common opponent tiebreaker leaned in Baltimore's edge with their win over Indianapolis Colts, the tipping scale being Cincinnati.

3. One win that shouldn't of been

Knowing what we know now, the Week 3 win at home against the Denver Broncos was less attractive than it was back then.  But it was the win the following week down in Atlanta that turned out to be the most attractive win the Bills had throughout the season.

And it could of played out much differently. 

Down 23-17 in the closing minute of the game, the Atlanta Falcons faced a 3rd and 1 at the Buffalo 10 yard line, and then rattled off a pair of incomplete passes to ensure victory for the Bills in a game where Matt Ryan was missing Julius Jones due to hip injury.  The Falcons also turned it over three times, twice on Micha Hyde picks and once on a lost fumble by the Falcons QB.  It was the one win where you felt like the Bills were handed a golden-wrapped gift all season, which helps to counter one of the bad losses the Bills suffered through the season.

4. The Snow Bowl

The Indianapolis/Buffalo game in December could be summarized as being in the eye of the storm that was a tough stretch where the Bills had to face off against a streaky Kansas City, and a pair of games against both the Dolphins and the Patriots.

Who knew the literal figure would become reality, as the Bills played one of the most entertaining, most exhilarating games this season in the midst of winter's fury along Lake Erie.  People tuned to the game to watch the game unfold while the snow presented challenges for camera and field crews alike. 

The Bills wound up winning the game in overtime on McCoy's touchdown run, electrifying the Bills season down the final stretch against Miami and New England. 

5. Remember what people were saying before the season

The 2017 season shouldn't of been this memorable for Buffalo.

Right after the Bills shipped off Sammy Watkins off to Los Angeles during the preseason, it was common perception that the Buffalo Bills were going to tank the season, playing for a spot ... in the 2018 NFL Draft. 

The 1st game of the season was referred to as the "Tank Bowl" by some when the Bills played host to the New York Jets, another team that was rumored to be tanking their way through the 2017 season.  It was a battle of two teams playing to lose.  Buffalo came out the winners in that game, but for some analysts, the Jets were the bigger winner for setting their future up.

Little did we know three weeks later the Bills would be sporting a 3-1 record, and fifteen weeks later, would still be in playoff contention.

In Summary: The Buffalo Bills first playoff appearance in 18 seasons was one fans weren't expecting.  While it's great that the Buffalo Bills were able to finally snap the streak, the Bills need to work on some things heading into 2018 and beyond.

First, the Buffalo Bills need a quarterback that they can depend on to make the big plays and launch the two minute drive fans were longing for in their playoff loss to Jacksonville.  Tyrod Taylor's got leg power, but he's not known to be a quarterback to go deep on. 

But the quarterback needs some help.  A dependable wide receiver down the field could be nice.  Either way, the Buffalo Bills are armed with back-to-back first round picks thanks to their trade with the Kansas City Chiefs in the 2017 draft, so they could either stock their team with those two picks or use it as leverage to trade up in the draft. 

The future's looking less cloudy in Buffalo.

Thanks for taking the ride with us through this 2017 season, and hoping that you can join us for the 2018 ride starting in August with the preseason games.

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