Friday, July 18, 2014

Saratoga 2014: Day 1 of 40 (Preview)


The horses will be heading to post at 1PM for the start of 400 or so races that will take place on the historic oval between now and Labor Day.

It's the beginning of Saratoga 2014, and here at FOX Sports Radio 1230 we're going to be another place you can turn for racing coverage from the track 15 miles from our studios in Queensbury.

From live reports at the track throughout the season and racing analysis here online, we're going to be sure you have another source for information.

Every racing day, prior to the start of the first race, we'll give you a preview of that day's stakes race, and try to give you our picks for who we think will win.  In addition, we're going to try something - and bear in mind - our record with handicapping isn't superb.  Just ask Andrew Champagne.

We're going to have a $100 mythical bankroll to the start of the season, and we'll be making bets throughout the season on these stakes races.  However, once that $100's gone, we're done for the season ... so hopefully we'll make some good, safe bets.

***

With that said, let's take a look at the Opening Day card at Saratoga Race Course.  10 races greets fans as the first gets under way at 1PM.

 SAR 3: The Schyulerville - G III - 2YO Fillies - 6 Furlongs (DIRT) - Purse: $150,000 - Post: 2:02PM
P#
PP
Horse

A/S
Med
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L
1
1

2/F
L
119
20/1
2
2

2/F
L
119
5/2
3
3

2/F
L
119
12/1
4
4

2/F
L
121
3/5
5
5

2/F
L
119
6/1
Entries courtesy Equibase

With a heavy favorite and a light field, the traditional Opening Day feature, the Grade III Schuylerville will be ran early, carded as the 3rd race with a post time of 2:02PM.  Fashion Alert is the one to beat, with John Velazquez and Todd Pletcher on the connections for the 3/5 morning line favorite.  

Fashion Alert debuted in the $100,000 Astoria Stakes at Belmont on June 14th, coming out of post 6, and running immediately for the lead and drew off in the stretch to win by 4 3/4 lengths over Liatris and Lindy.

One of Fashion Alert's biggest competitors could come from Tulira's Star, who comes out of a Maiden Special Weight at Arlington.  There she stalked Rock My Dreams after an awkward start as Rock My Dreams set the early fraction, then took the lead in the turn and ran away to win by 3 1/2 lengths over La Grange.  

Take Charge Brandi wasn't the favorite when she debuted on June 22nd at Churchill Downs, but convincingly won as the 3-1 second choice after she took the early lead and expanded on it over Conquest Archangel in the stretch to win by 2 1/2 lengths.  

Evrbdymstgetstonz upset the field on July 2nd when she crushed the field in her debut at Belmont Park, winning her Maiden Special Weight by 6 lengths, leading throughout.  It was such a decisive victor for the 23-1 longshot that she was hand urged in the stretch. 

Mast Cove is the only horse to have been raced more than once in this field, finally breaking her maiden in a Maiden Claiming race at Delaware Park.  In that race, she dueled Mide as Well to the turn, took clear control of the lead heading into the stretch and won over Looking for Lucky.  

***

Analysis: The Schuyerville is the type of race where anything can happen, and last year was the source of added excitement with the dead heat.  Mast Cove's ability to beat higher-tiered horses will come into play, as all three races were at Delaware Park and Pimlico, normally not known for producing strong juvenile candidates.  Plus her maiden win in a claiming race sets her lower than her four rivals.  

Fashion Alert's only race came in an ungraded stakes race, the only one to have raced in such competition.  That sets her above the rest of her competition.  Plus her race was at 5 1/2 furlongs, 1/2 furlong short of the 6 this race is.  One other horse raced at that distance, and that's Evrbdymstgetsonz.  But the fact that Evrbdymstgetsonz only needed a hand ride to get to the finish, could make things interesting between those two.

I think Evrbdymstgetsonz could cover the distance with something left in the tank.  Just like I think Fashion Alert could pull off the win for her backers.  After some debate, and a coin flip, I think we could have an upset on Day #1 at the Spa.
Picks: 3-4-5

MYTHICAL BET
Current Bankroll: $100
Wager: $3 to WIN, PLACE on #3 - Evrbdymstgetstonz
$4 EXACTA BOX: 3/4
$0.50 TRIFECTA: 3-4/3-4/5
TOTAL WAGERS: $15.00
Remaining Bankroll: $85

***

SAR 9th: The Sir Cat - 3 Year Olds - 1 Mile (TURF) - Purse: $100,000 - Post: 5:15PM 
P#
PP
Horse
A/S
Med
Jockey
Wgt
Trainer
M/L
1
1
3/C
L
122
9/5
2
2
3/C
L
122
4/1
4
4
3/C
L
116
15/1
5
5
3/C
L
118
8/5
6
6
3/C
L
116
8/1
7
7
3/G
L
122
10/1
8
8
3/C
L
116
30/1
3
3
3/C
L
116
2/1
Entries Courtesy Equibase

Let's be serious here, Pablo Del Monte's only going to be racing if they accidentally stick the turf course in Saratoga Lake.  With beautiful weather the last couple of days, plus beautiful weather forecasted for all of Friday, The Sir Cat is going to stay on the grass surface.  

Tourist won his last two starts, venturing into stakes competition after his win in an allowance race on June 8th at Belmont Park.  There he took to the lead, and won easily by 5 3/4 lengths over Patent and J to the Croft to get his connections thinking about the next level, especially after he stopped the timer in 1:33.30 over the firm going.  

Storming Inti, a Pennsylvania bred, comes into the race after a 3rd place finish in the Penn Mile Stakes at Penn National on May 31st.  He stalked, but couldn't get the kick he needed to get closer to stablemate Bobby's Kitten, who was also trained by Chad Brown.  Storming Inti has been kept out of the winner's circle since his win in the Kitten's Joy Stakes at Gulfstream back in January.  

Cabo Cat finished 3rd in that race.  Of late, Cabo Cat finished 2nd in both the Mr. Light Stakes and Paradise Creek Stakes, then found the winner's circle in the Manila Stakes at Belmont Park.  There he relaxed through the early stages of the mile, giving the leaders 7 lengths at the opening quarter and then closing through the turn and into the stretch where he took the lead and held off Long On Value to win.

After finishing third to Tourist, J To The Croft took advantage of a stalking trip to win a 7 furlong Allowance Optional Claiming race at Belmont Park, hanging on by a neck over Los Borrachos.  His narrow victory, coupled with his 2nd place finish in an allowance on May 15th when he lost the lead in the stretch to Canzoni in a 1-1/16th mile race might raise some question whether J To The Croft can handle the full mile.

If you recognized the name Ring Weekend, it's because he was one of the starters in the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico back in May.  There he finished 5th getting bumped repeatedly and couldn't gain ground from the front runners.  That was the last race he finished.  In the Pegasus Stakes at Monmouth, Ring Weekend set the early fractions, but quickly gave way in the far turn and was pulled up after he was clearly the last of the 5 horses. With John Velazquez on board, this could be a horse to watch if he's back to form.

The last time Vigorish tried stakes company, it didn't go well for him.  In the Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds in February, he finished 11th of the 14 horses, outclassed by his rivals was the maiden.  But after breaking his maiden at Ellis Park on the 4th of July, he returns to stakes competition at Saratoga Race Course.  

Gourmet Delight is another fresh off breaking his maiden, doing so at Monmouth Park after 8 tries.

Picks: 2-5-7

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