Boys Basketball: Seeding Thoughts

Well, I was correct on 32 teams when it came to projecting where teams were going to be seeding.  When it comes to analyzing my predictions, if a team opted out, that seeding would be taken by the next in line (18 would become 17 and so forth).  Green indicates an exact prediction, Orange notes where I was one seed high or low on, and red means I was completely wrong (more than one seed off their actual).

Below the jump, we start with Class AA and work our way down to D in looking at the seeds.  Coming on Friday will be a preview of the Sectionals and our picks for the four teams to make it to the Glens Falls Civic Center (or in AA, the Times Union Center).


CLASS AA

Team	Predicted	Actual
Suburban
Shenendehowa	1S	1S
Guilderland	2S	2S
Shaker	3S	4S
Saratoga Springs	4S	7S
Columbia	5S	5S
Niskayuna	6S	6S
Colonie	7S	8S
Ballston Spa	8S	OUT
Independent
Green Tech	1I	1I
Bethlehem	2I	3S
Catholic Central	3I	2I
Schenectady	4I	4I
CBA	5I	3I
LaSalle	6I	5I
Bishop Maginn	7I	7I
Albany	8I	6I

As thought, Shenendehowa and Green Tech walk away with the best seeds in Class AA.  Guilderland picked up the #2 in the Suburban.  However, my thoughts that they would move Bethlehem to the #2 in the Independent to balance the brackets became null and void when Ballston Spa opted out of playing sectionals.  

Saratoga Springs dropped down to the Suburban #7, and CBA and Albany got boosts from the committee from my projections.  

Now it's time to play the games, and to see if we end up with the match most want for the championship - Green Tech and Shenendehowa in the battle of the unbeaten.

CLASS A

Team	Predicted	Actual
Scotia	1	1
Amsterdam	2	4
Troy	3	2
Averill Park	4	3
Queensbury	5	5
Mohonasen	6	7
Gloversville	7	6
Glens Falls	8	8
Lansingburgh	9	9
Bishop Gibbons	10	11
South Glens Falls	11	10
Burnt Hills	12	12
Hudson Falls	13	OUT

Scotia was the clear-cut choice for the #1 seed in Class A.  Amsterdam's loss to Troy coupled with Troy's tougher schedule resulted in Troy being placed ahead of Amsterdam.  Queensbury was the clear #5 seed -- blowout losses to Scotia and a rough loss to Amsterdam didn't help them look good on paper.  Gloversville's late season surge where the team has started to come together has been rewarded with a #6 seed, ahead of Suburban's Mohonasen, who I thought would take the #6.  They still got South Glens Falls as they came up ahead of Bishop Gibbons.

The top four seeds look real good, and it will take a monumental effort from the lower seeds if they are to knock the high seeds off at Hudson Valley Community College on March 1st.

CLASS B

Team	Predicted	Actual
Hoosick Falls	1	1
Schalmont	2	3
Catskil	3	4
Cohoes	4	6
Voorheesville	5	7
Broadalbin-Perth	6	2
Mekeel Christian	7	5
Hudson	8	10
Schuylerville	9	8
Ichabod Crane	10	9
Ravena	11	13
Mechanicville	12	11
Coxsackie-Athens	13	15
Cairo-Durham	14	16
Johnstown	15	14
Watervliet	16	12
Corinth	17	17
Chatham	18	OUT
Granville	19	18
Fonda-Fultonville	20	OUT
Cobleskill	21	OUT
Taconic Hills	22	OUT
Tamarac	23	19

Yeah.  I wrote in the predictions entry that this could be the classification that I completely miss.  And judging by all the red marks, I missed a lot.  Hoosick Falls gained the #1 seed, but then there were plenty of surprises.

The most noticeable is Broadalbin-Perth being boosted to a #2 seed ahead of Schalmont.  Broadalbin-Perth is a good team, and they showed that by beating Cohoes on Tuesday night.  That may be the determining factor that boosted Broadalbin-Perth over Schalmont.  It was likely even before the result that Broadalbin-Perth would have been granted a top 4 seed.

Mekeel Christian Academy's strength of schedule is weak.  And when they played teams that they could meet in the tournament, they didn't finish with the same success they had over Class C's and D's they play all season long in the WAC.  That's why them getting up to a #5 seed ahead of Cohoes and Voorheesville is surprising.

Granted Catskill's strength of schedule isn't as great as Broadalbin-Perth and Schalmont's, but they do play more teams they will find in this tournament in the Patroon Conference than Mekeel Christian does.  Next year will be a different story when Bishop Gibbons and Bishop Maginn join the WAC, but that's a conversation for next February.

Regardless of how the seedings played out, the top 7 seeds all have the potential to be playing at the Glens Falls Civic Center on March 7th.  This bracket is that deep of talent from all parts of Section 2.  And because of that, this bracket is the most volatile, with the greatest chance of upsets. 

CLASS C

Team	Predicted	Actual
Lake George	1	1
Greenwich	2	2
Waterford	3	3
Hoosic Valley	4	4
Spa Catholic	5	11
Stillwater	6	6
Canajoharie	7	7
Berlin	8	9
Middleburgh	9	5
St. Johnsville	10	8
Fort Plain	11	12
Rensselaer	12	13
Berne-Knox-Westerlo	13	14
Hadley-Luzurne	14	10
Duanesburg	15	15
Maple Hill	16	16
Cambridge	17	19
Schoharie	18	17
Galway	19	OUT
Greenville	20	OUT
Mayfield	21	OUT
Whitehall	22	18

  

One big surprise in the top 7, and that's Spa Catholic falling down a 11 after I projected them to be a 5.  They have had some inconsistencies, but I didn't think that they would be penalized that hard for their tough losses this season.  But congrats to Middleburgh for their better seed than projected.

Likewise, I didn't expect Hadley-Luzurne to be seeded as high as the #10 they gained.  They had some decent games, but I thought the Adirondack League's strength compared to the WAC and Wasaren League would come into play.

Lake George and Greenwich deserved to go 1 and 2.  I was questioning whether or not the committee would recognize Waterford for their league championship in the Central Hudson Valley League with a #3 seed, but that's more because of the strength of the league.  If anything, I wouldn't of been surprised if Waterford was down at a #5 or #6, topped by Hoosic Valley and Stillwater in the Wasaren.

St. Johnsville received a good seed in what will be their lone year in Class C, as they return to Class D competition next year.  

As far as the tournament is concerned, the early rounds should bear few upsets, but the later rounds could get very entertaining.  Especially if the Top 4 seeds are still playing when action comes to the Glens Falls Civic Center on March 4th.

CLASS D

Team	Predicted	Actual
Germantown	1	1
North Warren	2	2
Fort Ann	3	3
Fort Edward	4	6
Argyle	5	5
Northville	6	4
Loudonville Christian	7	7
Heatly	8	8
Warrensburg	9	9
Doane Stuart	10	10
Hartford	11	OUT
Salem	12	OUT
Sharon Springs	13	OUT
Bolton Landing	14	OUT
New Lebanon	15	OUT
Hawthorne Valley	16	OUT

The least amount of surprises seeding-wise come in Class D, where only two teams weren't seeded the way I predicted.  Fort Edward, who has been on a surge late, got demoted perhaps because of their early-season issues, and Northville got a boost despite losing four of their last six.

When it comes down to it, the seeding sets up an interesting Saturday evening finale at Stillwater where Fort Ann will have a chance to get revenge for the way they went down to Fort Edward late in the season while Tyler Mattison was on the mend.  We'll talk more about that match when it comes to our Friday Sectional Preview, but that is one of several games that could be very interesting to watch on February 28th.

North Warren got the boost over Fort Ann in part because of their win over the Cardinals in December.  If the two teams should meet at the Glens Falls Civic Center, and it's possible we might see that the first week of March, it should be an interesting start to a good triple-header that includes the Class C semifinals.

OVERALL

The teams who were expected to get the top seeds earned the top seeds, and overall there were few major surprises when it comes to the seeding numbers.  Class D and Class C resulted in the best predictions regarding the top seeds, with Class B being the toughest to project.

But that was to be expected in the classification that houses 7 good teams to watch out for.  

Total Teams: 75

Teams correctly predicted: 32

Teams one seed off: 25

Teams mis-projected: 18